Operation Rising Lion: How Israel-Iran Tensions Threaten India’s Interests

Tensions in West Asia escalated as Israel launched Operation Rising Lion – a targeted military operation against Iran. The strikes were aimed at hitting the ‘heart’ of Iran’s nuclear program.

Terming the attacks an act of self-defence, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the operation was initiated to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival.

Israel has repeatedly expressed deep concerns over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, viewing them as a direct threat to its existence.

While distancing the United States – a key ally of Israel – from Operation Rising Lion, former President Donald Trump told the media that he had advance knowledge of the strikes. He emphasized, “Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb. We are hoping to get back on the negotiating table. We will see.”

Meanwhile, India walked the diplomatic tightrope, urging both Israel and Iran to exercise restraint.

In a statement, Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said,

“India urges both sides to avoid any escalatory steps. Existing channels of dialogue and diplomacy should be utilized to work towards a de-escalation of the situation and resolving underlying issues.”

Expressing deep concern over the developments, the MEA noted that India enjoys friendly relations with both Israel and Iran, and stands ready to extend all possible support.

Furthermore, the MEA stated that Indian embassies in both countries are in contact with the Indian diaspora, who have been advised to exercise caution, stay safe, and follow local advisories.

India shares economic, strategic, geographic, and security-related ties with both nations. Any further escalation would have a multifaceted impact on India.

What’s at Stake for India

1. Oil Prices & Energy Security

India imports over 80% of its crude oil, much of it from the Gulf. A direct conflict between Israel and Iran could destabilize the entire West Asian region, especially the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit chokepoint.

This could lead to a sharp spike in global oil prices, affecting India’s import bill, inflation, current account deficit, and ultimately consumer prices.

2. Safety of Indian Diaspora

Over nine million Indians live and work in West Asia, including in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iran.

A broader regional war could threaten their safety and livelihoods, potentially requiring large-scale evacuations, as witnessed during Operation Raahat and Vande Bharat Mission.

3. Regional Instability & Security Concerns

Escalation could trigger retaliatory strikes by Iran or its proxies (like Hezbollah and the Houthis), dragging in the U.S., Gulf nations, and possibly Pakistan.

India would need to balance its diplomatic stance while also tightening homeland security due to possible proxy threats or radicalization.

4. Diplomatic Tightrope

India maintains strong strategic and defence ties with Israel, but also deep economic and energy ties with Iran.

Iran is crucial to India’s access to Afghanistan and Central Asia via the Chabahar Port, which bypasses Pakistan. Conflict could jeopardize this strategic route.

India will need to tread carefully to avoid alienating either side or broader stakeholders in the Muslim world.

5. Impact on Global Trade & Economy

Any Gulf disruption would impact maritime trade routes critical for Indian exports and imports.

The global economic fallout could trigger recessionary pressures, potentially affecting India’s growth, investment climate, and financial stability.