Exit Poll Results 2026: Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala & Puducherry Explained

With voting completed across major states, exit poll findings have provided an early indication of possible outcomes ahead of the official counting on May 4. The projections suggest a mixed political picture—clear leads in some states and intense competition in others.

Here’s a simplified breakdown of the major trends and seat estimates:

West Bengal: Deadlock Likely

In West Bengal, most exit polls point to a very tight contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee.

Key Highlights:

• Both BJP and TMC are projected to win around 140–150 seats each
• Some surveys give BJP a slight edge, while others favour TMC
• Smaller parties may win only a handful of seats
• A hung assembly remains a strong possibility

This election marks one of the closest contests in the state in recent years.

Tamil Nadu: DMK Ahead, TVK Emerges

In Tamil Nadu, exit polls mostly favour the ruling alliance led by M. K. Stalin, but a new political force has grabbed attention.

Key Highlights:

• DMK-led alliance projected: 120–140 seats
• AIADMK-led alliance: around 60–100 seats
• Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam led by Vijay: 0–100+ seats (varies widely across polls)
• TVK could influence multiple constituencies even with fewer seats

The entry of Vijay’s party has added unpredictability to the state’s politics.

Assam: Clear Win for BJP

In Assam, exit polls indicate a strong and clear mandate for the BJP.

Key Highlights:

• BJP projected to win: 88–100 seats
• Congress expected: 25–35 seats
• Others likely to secure very few seats
• Himanta Biswa Sarma likely to continue in power

The numbers suggest a comfortable victory for the ruling party.

Kerala: Narrow Edge to UDF

In Kerala, the contest appears close between the two main alliances.

Key Highlights:

• United Democratic Front: around 70–80 seats
• Left Democratic Front: around 55–65 seats
• BJP likely to win 0–3 seats
• Some polls still show a possible LDF comeback

The final result may depend on narrow margins in several constituencies.

Puducherry: NDA in Strong Position

In Puducherry, exit polls suggest a clear advantage for the ruling alliance.

Key Highlights:

• NDA projected to win: 16–20 seats
• Congress-DMK alliance: around 6–8 seats
• Smaller parties including TVK: 2–4 seats
• N. Rangasamy remains a popular choice for CM

The alliance looks set to retain power comfortably.

Overall Takeaway

• West Bengal and Kerala are heading for close contests
• Assam and Puducherry show clear leads for ruling alliances
• Tamil Nadu presents a unique situation with a strong new entrant
• Final outcomes may differ as exit polls are only projections

All eyes are now on May 4, when the official results will confirm whether these predictions hold true.