Gold Prices at Record Highs, But Big Test Ahead with US Data and Fed Signals

Gold prices in India hit an all-time high last week, but experts say the yellow metal could face a real test in the coming days as global and domestic factors collide.

The focus is now on key US economic data—especially the upcoming jobs report, manufacturing and services PMI numbers, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Traders believe these will set the tone for whether the Fed signals a rate cut in its September meeting.

On Friday, gold futures for October delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) touched a record ₹1,04,090 per 10 grams, before closing slightly lower. Despite profit-booking, analysts see more upside in the near term, with targets between ₹1,08,000 and ₹1,10,000.

Adding to the rally, the Indian rupee slipped to a historic low of ₹88.09 against the US dollar, dragged down by heavy foreign fund outflows and trade tensions with Washington. A weaker rupee usually makes gold more expensive domestically.

“Festive demand in India, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty around the Russia-Ukraine peace talks are also driving sentiment,” Pranav Mer of JM Financial Services told media.

Aksha Kamboj of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association noted that global trade disputes are also in play, especially after a US court ruled Donald Trump’s tariffs illegal. “If the US dollar stays weak, gold prices may stay firm above ₹1 lakh per 10 grams,” she added.

In the global market, Comex gold futures settled at $3,530.70 per ounce, just shy of their lifetime peak. Prices have surged nearly 7% in 10 days, reflecting safe-haven demand.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has already hinted at risks in the labour market, keeping hopes of policy easing alive. But with gold at record highs, analysts warn that short-term corrections are likely.

“After such a strong rally, volatility is expected. Traders should brace for pullbacks even though the broader outlook for gold remains positive,” said Prathamesh Mallya of Angel One.

In short, the next few days could decide whether gold continues its golden run—or takes a breather before the next leg up.