Third Wave As Per SUTRA Mathematical Model for Pandemic

As the risk for the third wave starting soon leans over our head, the medical experts are trying to warn everybody. You will have to be careful and follow all the Covid protocols as we do not know when the wave can start. If there is a mutant strain that is spreading rapidly, then the third wave can be a serious one but if there is no mutant variant of coronavirus, then the third wave can be a normal one, not too concerning.

In case there is no mutant strain that is spreading rapidly, the third wave can be a ripple somewhere between October and November. But if there is a mutant strain that is spreading at a concerning pace, then the third wave can be just like the first and second ones. It depends on the immunity of a person and the mutant virus’ capacity to surpass it. If the virus can escape immunity, then the third wave can be really difficult to handle.

These predictions were made based on the SUTRA mathematical model for pandemic which was developed by the researchers from IIT-Kanpur and IIT-Hyderabad. This model earlier predicted the first and second waves and their effects in Telangana and overall in the country.

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According to the model and its predictions, the third wave depends on the immune-escape capability of a variant. That means if the virus is able to escape vaccination, the third wave will affect even those who received the Covid jabs. But the symptoms in them will be less. If the mutant cannot escape the immunity, then the effects will be significantly less.

Even when immunity is one factor, the mutant spread itself is another. If the mutant is able to escape immunity but the spread is significantly slow, then the third wave will also be less concerning than the second one. We are waiting for more details as further research is being done.