World Population Day: India to Dethrone China as Most Populous Country in 2023, Says UN

India is set to exceed China as the world's most populous country in 2023, according to a United Nations report on the occasion of World Population Day. The UN report warned that high fertility would challenge economic growth.

The World Population Prospects 2022 by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, said that the global population is estimated to reach 8 billion by Nov. 15 this year, could grow to 8.5 billion in 2030, and 10.4 billion in 2100.

India's population was 1.21 billion in 2011, according to the domestic census, which is conducted once a decade. The government had deferred the 2021 census due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

“This year’s World Population Day (July 11) falls during a milestone year, when we anticipate the birth of the Earth’s eight billionth inhabitant. This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognise our common humanity, and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said.

The world's population was growing at its slowest pace since 1950, having fallen below 1% in 2020, UN estimates showed. In 2021, the average fertility of the world’s population stood at 2.3 births per woman over a lifetime, having fallen from about 5 births in 1950. Global fertility is projected to decline further to 2.1 births per woman by 2050.

8 billion people in November 2022
8.5 billion people in 2030
9.7 billion people in 2050

How can sustainable development keep up with population growth?

Get the latest data on Monday's #WorldPopulationDay: https://t.co/ezgH09mIAn via @UNDESA pic.twitter.com/NBm9GjBhW3

— United Nations (@UN) July 11, 2022

As per the UN report, China and India, with more than 1.4 billion people each, were the most populous in the world. In 2022, the world's two most populous regions were in Asia with 29 percent of the global population (2.3 billion people) in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia (2.1 billion) and 26 per cent in Central and Southern Asia. 

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The UN stated that over half of the projected increase in global population by 2050 will be concentrated in eight nations, namely the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.