It’s Advantage BJP In UP, Says India Today Opinion Poll

It what could be a morale booster for the BJP, the all-important Uttar Pradesh might go the saffron way in the coming assembly elections. Despite the demonetisation blues, the BJP is set to increase its votes by 2 per cent and bags 33 per cent votes if the Assembly elections were to be held today. Interestingly, BJP was poised to get 31 per cent votes in October, ie before demonetisation. The survey by Axis My India was commissioned by the India Today.

The survey says the vote percentage would translate to 206 to 216 seats, which is a clear majority in 403-seat UP Assembly. The ruling Samajwadi Party is likely to emerge as the second largest party with a vote share of 26 per cent in the latest survey, translating into 92-97 seats. This was before the split in the SP. The split might further hit the chances of the SP. Mayavathi''s BSP is likely to win 79-85 seats and remain a close third. Despite all the hullabaloo the Congress might get just 6-7 per cent votes. The BSP might not get the support of the upper castes this time.

Quite interestingly, an overwhelming 76% of the sample backed demonesation. A good 42 per cent said they were not in the least inconvenienced by the cash shortage. The increase in the BJP's vote share indicates that despite the inconvenience caused by DeMo, people believe that PM Modi's move will ultimately benefit the nation.

Uttar Pradesh will begin voting on February 11 and go on till March 8. Votes will be counted on March 11.

Significantly, the opinion poll did not factor in the possible split in the SP and which way smaller parties go. The Muslim voters too appear undecided. Their decision too could tilt the scales.