Chandrababu plans trust motion now?

Speaker Nadendla Manohar’s decision to disqualify 15 MLAs (9 Congress and 5 TDP) from the Assembly created ripples in the state politics as it was the second such step in the five-year rule of the Congress government.

Speaker Manohar had a dubious distinction to axe 31 MLAs in his tenure of five years and four more MLAs are waiting for action as no Speaker had this record in the history of AP assembly. 

Manohar had disqualified 16 MLAs of ruling Congress and accepted the resignation of Bhuma Shobha Nagireddy of the erstwhile Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) in March last year. The strength of Congress had dropped down from 154 to 137 in a house of 294. Now with disqualification of nine more MLAs, its total members in the assembly reduced to 146.

The strength of parties in the Assembly as of now is: Congress: 146, TDP: 79, YSR Congress: 17, TRS: 17, MIM: 7, CPI: 4, BJP: 3, CPI-M: 1, Loksatta: 1, Independents: 3.  With demise of Ambati Brahmaniah, Avanigadda MLA, the TDP strength stands at 79. 

The Speaker’s decision brings no surprise as it was already debated in the political circles that there may not be by-election even if the rebel MLAs were axed. Because, there was a clause in the Election Commission rules that by-polls may not be required to hold if any legislator resigned or died within one year of regular assembly elections that is in March 2014. So, even if the assembly constituencies fell vacant, there will not be the by-elections. 

What will Chandrababu do now?

The Speaker’s decision to disqualify 15 MLAs at once is, in fact, a blessing in disguise for TDP president N Chandrababu Naidu. YSR Congress and TRS are quite some time levelling allegations against Naidu that he has hidden understanding with the Congress. He had directed his MLAs to skip Assembly session when TRS moved no trust motion in March this year and it was supported by YSR Congress and other parties. Naidu reasoned for his decision saying: “Why should I support when a thoka (tail) parties moved the confidence motion.” 

Sources close to the TDP circles, however, confirmed that Naidu is on the fresh thoughts of moving no-trust motion in the assembly on June 12, two days after the Assembly session commenced. He reportedly discussed it with his close associates and party senior leaders. Naidu’s sketch is that even if he moved the motion, there is no chance to win the trust voting as Congress has a strength of 146.

Congress party will win the trust with six votes in a House of 279. If the remaining four TDP MLAs also disqualified from the Assembly, the Congress will win the trust vote by 10 votes assuming all the remaining parties voted against the Kiran Government.  So, Naidu has luck of killing two birds with one stone. There may be no further allegations against him of connivance with Congress from coming to its rescue at the previous trust vote and the second one is that he can continue his relationship with the Kiran Government as usual.   

A safe bet for Kiran

Since Kiran Kumar Reddy has blessings from Naidu, he can sail smoothly and continue as chief minister till the end of the term. Taking all equations into consideration, the Congress high command directed Kiran to axe on the rebel MLAs. Surprisingly, the Speaker has kept pending four of TDP rebel MLAs against whom the TDP had filed a disqualification petition. They include K Harishwar Reddy (Parigi), S Venugopala Chary (Adilabad), Chinnam Ramakotaiah (Nuzvid) and Gangula Kamalakar (Karimnagar).  

Both Hariswar Reddy and Gangula Kamalakar have joined TRS, while Venugopalachari is yet to decide as he was denied ticket in TRS and moving closely with Congress leaders. Chinnam Ramakotaiah, MLA from Nuzvid, who made a scathing attack against Naidu, was remained as neutral. The Speaker may take action against them after completing hearing against the three MLAs. Decision was pending on the disqualification against Gangula Kamalakar and he may be axed in a day or two or after the assembly session. 

The political analysts, however, are on the observation that the axing of 15 MLAs benefited both Congress and TDP one way or the other. Congress is in safe position now, while the TDP gained by reducing attacks from YSR Congress and TRS.

-aks@Sakshipost