2014 —YSRCP vs the rest
2014 may well spell the death-knell for UPA-II at the Centre and the Congress party in Andhra Pradesh. The tide is likely to turn the YSRCP into a political Tsunami in the 2014 elections.
An India Today/Nielsen survey on how things are likely to play out for the UPA and YSRCP reveals that the latter is miles ahead in the mood of the nation. The YSRCP president, YS Jagan Mohan Reddy has a distinct edge in the state and is likely to emerge as an unchallenged leader, even if polls were to be held today, the survey reveals.
It says that the YSRCP is likely to bag anywhere between 23 and 27 seats, while the other parties the ruling Congress,TRS, and TDP would get less than 12 seats. Of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh, the YSRCP is predicted to score decisively in more than 25 seats.
The overall strength of the UPA Lok Sabha seats could come down from 259 to somewhere between 171 and 181 seats. Meanwhile the NDA is expected to get anywhere between 195 and 205 seats. This obviously means that we are in for another round of coalition governance at the Centre, with all its ills.
YSRCP with a strength of around 25 Lok Sabha seats is expected to play a critical role in national politics as well. It is all set to emerge as of the major regional parties which would decide the course of the formation of the next government at the Centre.
The Congress leadership finds itself in a real bind with one section of Congressmen building pressure on the Centre to back Jagan, knowing that the party would be doomed if it were to face an election under the current leadership in the state. There is such a political void in terms of stature in the Congress that there is no one to take on the charismatic YSRCP president. Meanwhile, the TDP is likely to fare very badly and faces complete decimation in 2014.
Jagan in 2014
As per the predictions of the India Today-Nielsen survey Jagan will emerge as the clear winner, way ahead of all the others in the state and will find himself on the centrestage of national politics when the next government is scheduled to get formed.
It is widely believed that Jagan would emerge unscathed in the disproportionate assets case which in popular perception has been foisted on him to keep him away from the people and to tar his image, as well.
Kiran Kumar’s future
If one person has a special reason to be sore with the results of the survey, it is Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy who stands eighth in terms of popularity. One can well imagine where he is likely to figure in 2014! Worse, in spite of everything he has said and done against Jagan, it is the latter who seems to be streets ahead of him in this political marathon. The Kiran Kumar Reddy government ended up spending crores of rupees on a massive publicity blitz, but what has that yielded? It is believed that at least 25 Congress MLAs are in touch with Jaganmohan Reddy and this in itself can become a major destabilizing factor, especially for a Chief Minister, who has not quite found his feet.
His government had to, as it continues to, live and function under the shadow of the YSR legacy and has been accused of dilution of many of the late Chief Minister’s welfare schemes. Be it farmers, students, women, widows, SCs, BCs or minorities, he could not endear himself to any single section of the populace, despite his feeble attempts to look like a strong leader. The issue of Telangana is likely to haunt Kiran Kumar Reddy soon which will only compound his problems.
What lies in store for the TDP?
Where does the TDP stand in all this? It is believed that many of Chandrababu Naidu’s party men are flapping their wings with even some of his senior party functionaries set to join the YSRCP. The Telugu Desam’s innings as a major opposition party appears to be coming to an end.
The TDP is no longer seen as a credible, viable opposition and seems to have reached the end of its political tether. All that we need to do is keep our fingers crossed and wait for 2014, a year which might write the obituary of many a political leader.
