Global Climate Trends: Earth's Temperatures May Exceed Paris Warming Limit

The world may temporarily break the 1.5-degree Celsius warming milestone over the next five years according to a new assessment of global climate trends.
According to the World Meteorological Organization and the Met Office of the United Kingdom, there is a 40% possibility that the yearly average global temperature would exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, which is the Paris climate aspirational warming limit.

According to the Met Office's latest global 10-year climate forecast, at least one year between 2021 and 2025 has a 90 percent chance of being the hottest on record. It is expected that the annual average global temperature will be at least 1°C warmer than pre-industrial levels over the next five years, with a range of 0.9°C to 1.8°C warmer.

More melting ice, higher sea levels, more heatwaves, and other extreme weather, and greater implications on food security, health, the environment, and sustainable development are all consequences of rising temperatures.

A single year above 1.5C would not indicate the Paris goals had been broken, according to Joeri Rogelj, director of research at Imperial College London's Grantham Institute." However, this is still pretty negative news," he asserts.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) attributed the increase to improved datasets used to forecast temperatures rather than a sudden increase in the rate of warming.

In comparison to recent years, the new estimate showed an increased likelihood of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, as well as greater rainfall in high-latitude regions and the Sahel. "We need to hit the brakes on emissions now and stop global warming in the next 30 years or so," said Myles Allen, professor of geosystem science at the University of Oxford.

 "To limit global warming to 1.5C — or what the parties to the Paris Agreement thought 1.5C meant when they signed it — we need to hit the brakes on emissions now and stop global warming in the next 30 years or so," he said.