Are pre-poll surveys conducted by national channels trustworthy?

  Are pre-poll surveys shown on TV misleading? Many political analysts are of the opinion, that they are indeed unreliable.

If many of the surveys, conduced by various national channels are to be believed, TDP and Chandrababu Naidu will record major gains this election.  

However, can these surveys be trusted? During 2009 elections, NDTV predicted 13 seats, India Today predicted 14-16 seats and CNN-IBN predicted 16 seats for TDP. But, the party could secure only six seats ultimately.

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Moreover, NDTV conducted a pre poll survey recently, and according to the survey YSRCP will get 10 Lok Sabha seats, TDP-BJP combine will get 14 seats and Congress will get only one seat. But, the same channel conducted a survey last month, according to which YSRCP would bag 15 seats.

How did YSRCP lose its numbers in a matter of one month?  

Analysts, on the other hand, have differing views. The analysts are expecting only loss for TDP, and no advantage if the party joins hands with BJP, which supported Telangana bill in Parliament.

Speaking to CNN IBN,  Rural Affairs Editor of The Hindu P.Sainath said surveys have, for a decade, overestimated Chandrababu's popularity. He added that YS Jagan was the man to look out for in Seemandhra and not Chandrababu. “By joining hands with BJP,TDP may gain in Telangana, but not in Seemandhra,” he added. 

Former media advisor to prime minister Sanjay Baru, also added that  YSRCP would get majority of seats in Seemandhra. 

As several channels are conducting the surveys just to influence the voters, one organization became an exception for it. Neilson survey, whose predictions were spot on during last elections, are predicting that YSRCP will gain power. 

- Sakshipost