West Bengal Exit Poll 2026: BJP Predicted Big Win, TMC Faces Setback

A recent exit poll by Today's Chanakya has projected a major political shift in West Bengal, suggesting that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could secure a decisive victory in the state assembly elections. According to the survey, the BJP is expected to win more than 192 seats out of the total 294, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 147 seats.

The ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Mamata Banerjee, is projected to secure around 100 seats, while other parties may remain limited to just a couple of constituencies. If these estimates materialise, it would mark a significant political transformation in the state, potentially ending over 15 years of uninterrupted rule by the TMC.

Political observers note that such projections indicate a possible shift in voter sentiment, with consolidated support seemingly moving in favour of the BJP. However, not all exit polls are aligned. While several surveys suggest a BJP win, others predict that the TMC could return to power for a fourth consecutive term.

The situation mirrors the 2021 assembly elections, where similar predictions of a close contest were made. Ultimately, the TMC secured a decisive mandate with 215 seats, while the BJP managed to win 77 seats, taking the role of the opposition.

Tamil Nadu: Vijay’s Party Emerges as a Key Player

In Tamil Nadu, the exit poll indicates the emergence of actor-turned-politician Vijay as a significant political force. His party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), is projected to secure around 63 seats with approximately 30% of the vote share.

The ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is expected to win about 125 seats, while the opposition All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) may be limited to around 45 seats. The projections place Vijay’s party in the second position, highlighting its growing influence, especially among young voters, students, and first-time electorate.

Voting patterns suggest notable support for TVK among backward classes, scheduled castes, and Christian communities, while a significant section of Muslim voters appears to favour the DMK. Despite these projections, most exit polls still indicate that the DMK is likely to retain power. Interestingly, Axis My India stands out by predicting a stronger performance for Vijay’s party.

Kerala and Assam: Close Contests and Clear Leads

In Kerala, the contest between the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) appears to be tightly fought. However, the exit poll suggests that the Congress-led UDF may have a slight edge, with an estimated 69 seats out of 140.

Meanwhile, in Assam, the BJP is predicted to register a strong victory. The party is expected to win as many as 102 out of 126 seats, backed by nearly 50% vote share, indicating a clear mandate in the state.

Axis My India Withholds Bengal Exit Poll Results

Unlike other agencies, Axis My India has not released its exit poll findings for West Bengal. While it announced projections for other states earlier, it refrained from commenting on Bengal due to challenges in data collection.

According to the agency’s head, Pradeep Gupta, the ground situation in the state made it difficult to gather reliable samples, as many voters were unwilling to share their opinions. He stated that releasing projections based on incomplete data would not be appropriate.

A Crucial Electoral Moment

These exit poll trends underline a potentially transformative phase in multiple states, particularly in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. However, given past discrepancies between exit polls and actual results, the final outcome will only be clear once the official counting concludes.

Also read: Maharashtra Day 2026: What’s Open and Closed on May 1