Exit Poll Results 2026: Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala & Puducherry Explained

With voting completed across major states, exit poll findings have provided an early indication of possible outcomes ahead of the official counting on May 4. The projections suggest a mixed political picture—clear leads in some states and intense competition in others.

Here’s a simplified breakdown of the major trends and seat estimates:

West Bengal: Deadlock Likely

In West Bengal, most exit polls point to a very tight contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee.

Key Highlights:

Both BJP and TMC are projected to win around 140–150 seats each Some surveys give BJP a slight edge, while others favour TMC Smaller parties may win only a handful of seats A hung assembly remains a strong possibility

This election marks one of the closest contests in the state in recent years.

Tamil Nadu: DMK Ahead, TVK Emerges

In Tamil Nadu, exit polls mostly favour the ruling alliance led by M. K. Stalin, but a new political force has grabbed attention.

Key Highlights:

DMK-led alliance projected: 120–140 seats AIADMK-led alliance: around 60–100 seats Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam led by Vijay: 0–100+ seats (varies widely across polls) TVK could influence multiple constituencies even with fewer seats

The entry of Vijay’s party has added unpredictability to the state’s politics.

Assam: Clear Win for BJP

In Assam, exit polls indicate a strong and clear mandate for the BJP.

Key Highlights:

BJP projected to win: 88–100 seats Congress expected: 25–35 seats Others likely to secure very few seats Himanta Biswa Sarma likely to continue in power

The numbers suggest a comfortable victory for the ruling party.

Kerala: Narrow Edge to UDF

In Kerala, the contest appears close between the two main alliances.

Key Highlights:

United Democratic Front: around 70–80 seats Left Democratic Front: around 55–65 seats BJP likely to win 0–3 seats Some polls still show a possible LDF comeback

The final result may depend on narrow margins in several constituencies.

Puducherry: NDA in Strong Position

In Puducherry, exit polls suggest a clear advantage for the ruling alliance.

Key Highlights:

NDA projected to win: 16–20 seats Congress-DMK alliance: around 6–8 seats Smaller parties including TVK: 2–4 seats N. Rangasamy remains a popular choice for CM

The alliance looks set to retain power comfortably.

Overall Takeaway

West Bengal and Kerala are heading for close contests Assam and Puducherry show clear leads for ruling alliances Tamil Nadu presents a unique situation with a strong new entrant Final outcomes may differ as exit polls are only projections

All eyes are now on May 4, when the official results will confirm whether these predictions hold true.