Stock Market This Week (Feb 24-28): Maha Shivaratri Holiday, Short Trading Week, India's GDP Data & Key Global Trends

The upcoming trading week will be shorter as the Indian stock market will remain closed on February 26 for Maha Shivratri. Investors will also focus on India’s GDP data release, along with key economic updates from South Korea, Japan, and Australia.

IPO Market Update

The Indian IPO market is expected to remain subdued. Only one mainboard listing is scheduled, with Quality Power Electrical Equipments Ltd. debuting on February 21. Additionally, three SME IPOs will open for subscription, while three ongoing SME IPOs will close during the week.

Technical Market Outlook

According to experts, the market is still forming a lower top pattern and trading below the 20-day Simple Moving Average, which indicates a weak trend. If the Nifty manages to stay above 22,950, a short-term technical recovery could push it to 23,100-23,200. However, if it falls below 22,720, the correction may continue, bringing the index down to 22,500-22,400. Traders may consider entering long positions near 22,400 with a strict stop-loss at 22,320.

Market Performance Last Week

Persistent foreign capital outflows, global trade concerns, and a lack of positive domestic triggers led to further declines in Indian equity markets for the second consecutive week. The Nifty 50 ended at 22,795.9, down 117.25 points (0.51%), while the BSE Sensex closed at 75,311.06, down 424.9 points (0.56%).

During intraday trading, the Nifty briefly slipped below 22,800, while the Sensex hovered slightly above 75,100. Over the past week, the Nifty shed 0.64%, dragged down by Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories. The Sensex lost 0.92% during the same period.

Key Domestic Cues

India’s GDP data for the fourth quarter of FY24-25 is set to be released on February 28. While the economy is expected to show a rebound in growth, estimates suggest it may remain below its potential rate. Projections indicate GDP growth of 5.9% year-on-year in Q4, up from 5.4% in the previous quarter, but still below the estimated potential of 7.0%.

Activity levels have likely been boosted by the Maha Kumbh festival, and further support is expected from recent economic stimulus measures, including rate cuts and income tax reductions. Growth is projected to accelerate to 7.0% in the first quarter of FY25-26.

Global Economic Events

Key global economic events this week include:

February 25: South Korea’s monetary policy decision and rate outlook. Analysts expect a 25-basis-point rate cut to 2.75% to support economic growth.

February 26: Australia’s January CPI report, which could indicate headline inflation picking up but remaining within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2%-3% target range.

February 29: Japan’s Tokyo CPI report and industrial production data, which may reflect a continued rise in inflationary momentum.

Primary Market Activity

The primary market will see limited action, with one mainboard IPO listing (Quality Power Electrical Equipments Ltd. on February 21). Three new SME IPOs—Beezaasan Explotech Ltd., Nukleus Office Solutions Ltd., and Shreenath Paper Ltd.—will open, while HP Telecom India Ltd. and Swasth Foodtech Ltd. will continue their ongoing subscriptions.

Corporate Actions This Week

Several stocks will turn ex-dividend for interim payouts, including ASM Technologies Ltd., Prithvi Exchange (India) Ltd., SBI Cards & Payment Services Ltd., Bhatia Communications & Retail (India) Ltd., International Gemmological Institute India Ltd., Panchsheel Organics Ltd., and Power Finance Corporation Ltd.

Additionally, Oasis Securities Ltd. and RDB Realty and Infrastructure Ltd. will turn ex-date for stock splits.

Outlook for Investors

With a holiday-shortened week and key economic data releases, volatility may remain high in the markets. Investors should keep an eye on global trends, GDP data, and technical levels to navigate the upcoming trading sessions effectively.