YSRCP To Sweep AP: CPS Survey
Amaravati: YSR Congress Party is set to sweep Andhra Pradesh with a landslide win in the elections scheduled to be held on April 11, according to a poll survey conducted by Centre for Psephology Studies (CPS). The survey revealed that YSRCP was all set to form the next government in Andhra Pradesh and was likely to bag 121 to 130 MLAs seats. It also predicted that YSRCP led by YS Jagan Mohan Reddy would get 21 Lok Sabha seats out of 25 in the state.
The CPS survey said that the TDP would be reduced to 3 to 4 Lok Sabha seats and 45 to 50 assembly seats. As for the Jana Sena Party led by actor Pawan Kalyan, the survey said it would be down to a seat or two, taking it completely out of the equation. CPS is headed by eminent psephologist Dr. Venugopala Rao and has earned national recognition for its scientific studies and surveys. It may be recalled that surveys conducted by CPS on the outcome of Telangana elections held in December 2018 proved to be accurate.
CPS conducted the poll surveys on Andhra Pradesh to gauge the mood of the people of the state, in two phases. The first survey was conducted from February 17-21 covering a sample size of four, 4,37,642 respondents. The second phase of the survey was conducted from March 27-31 with a sample size covering 3,04,323 respondents. In all, the responses of 7,41,965 were factored into the analysis to determine the results of the survey.
Speaking to senior journalist TS Sudhir, Venugopal Rao of CPS spoke at length about various points related to the survey.
Q: What does your survey reveal on election results in Andhra Pradesh?
A: There is a powerful wave in favour of the YSR Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh and led by YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, the party is set to form government in the state. In the survey conducted by us in February YSR CP got 4% more votes than TDP, in the fresh survey YSRCP surged forward with a lead of 80% over TDP. In 2014 YSRCP lost narrowly by 1.60%. With a lead of 8% now, the party is said to have a clear majority in the assembly elections, it can be said.
Q: What does your survey reveal about the vote share of the principal parites?
A: YSRCP is likely to be ahead with about 48.1% of the vote share while TDP would be clearly about 7% behind on 40.1%, Jana Sena is likely to be a distant third with 8% of the vote share, while Congress and BJP may not have any significant impact on the electoral outcome.
Q: Does it appear as if Special Category Status it not an important issue in the ucoming elections?
A: This is true to some extent, but people tend to compare the contrasting approaches of YS Jagan and Chandrababu to the issue of Special Category Status. The YSRCP chief's credibility and trustworthiness on this count is evident and while he seems to enjoy 90% of the support from people, Chandrababu Naidu lags far behind with a mere 10%.
Q: Chandrababu claims that a vote for YS Jagan would amount to voting for KCR, but does it appear to have any impact on the people?
A: This accusation by Chandrababu does not appear to have much of an impact at the grassroots level because the TRS is not a contender in AP and does not have an electoral pact with any party here, either. The situation in Telangana elections was vastly different. TDP and Congress fought the elections together and Chandrababu campaigned on behalf of the alliance. This is the reason why people in Telangana believed that voting for the Congress amounted to a vote for TDP/Amaravati. AP, however, is a different pitch altogether. People in the state feel that YS Jagan deserves a chance as per our survey and his welfare schemes have evoked positive response from the people of the state everywhere.
Q: What about TDP's propaganda that YS Jagan is corrupt?
A: Out survey reveals that this is not an important factor in the electoral field today because the Chandrababu government indulged in massive scams over the past five years in the eyes of the people. Similarly, people refuse to believe Chandrababu Naidu's allegations that YS Jagan would bring in a culture of violence. Such accusations helped TDP to some extent in 2014 and people are questioning as to why Chandrababu Naidu is repeating these allegations over and over again during every elections.
Q: What will be the impact of Jana Sena?
A: Pawan Kalyan's party may end up with 8% of the vote share, mainly in East Godavari, West godavari and Visakhapatnam districts. Jana Sena's impat is likely to be confined to these threee districts and the party might end up with one or two MLAs in the assembly as per our estimates.
Q: What is the partywise breakup of seats as per your survey?
A: YSRCP will gain anywhere between 121 to 130 seats and form the next government in AP, while TDP will be reduced to 45-54 seats. Jana Sena will get about one or two seats. As regards Lok Sabha constituencies, YSRCP is likely to bag 21 seats while TDP could win four. Jana Sena will draw a blank when it comes to Lok Sabha seats.
Q: How do people view Chandrababu vis-a-vis YS Jagan in terms of leadership?
A: Party leadership appears to be the main plank of the April 11 elections. 46% of the people wish to see YS Jagan as the next chief minister and repose their confidence in them while only 39% were inclined towards Chandrababu Naidu.
Q: What is the reason for increase in YSRCP's vote share over the last two weeks?
A: The main reason for YSRCP's growing popularity is extensive, well-planned electioneering being conducted by YS Jagan in contrast to TDP chief Chandrababu who is not able to keep pace and appears to have given up. The TDP supremo's election strategy appears flawed. Everyone knows that there is widesopread resentment against TDP MLAs but ignoring this completely, Chandrababu Naidu is trying to incite people saying that YS Jagan nd Narendra Modi have teamed up againg the TDP to create problems for AP. This is a big mistake in his planning and strategy. As a last ditch effort, in the last three months, Chandrababu Naidu has introduced a few welfare scheme which have had little impact on the ground. His multiple u-turns on SCS also dented his image. He is now the infamous U-turn Babu.
Q: Who are the DWCRA groups backing?
A: 45.2% of DWCRA women are in support of YSRCP while 44% are inclined to back TDP.
Also Read: 50 Reasons Why AP People Want To Crown YS Jagan CM